Market Analysis

Bespoke reports as well as regional reviews

GCA’s market specialists regularly assess global crude oil and refined product markets to analyse the optimal outlet for crude oil production and refined products. Many of our recent assignments have focussed on developing views on refined product markets in particular target countries to shape the capacity and configuration of proposed newbuild refinery projects. In doing so, we assess the prospects for refined product prices, to help define the optimal product mix for the refinery, along with developing views on the likely value of the crude oil feedstock, to maximize the economic performance of the project. Our experience also extends to analyzing the markets available for placement of products from GTL projects, considering distance to market, end-market product quality requirements, competition to supply and expected future product prices.

Within the gas sector, a key aspect of GCA’s capabilities is the utilization and conservation of gas, centering on the assessment of optimal gas transportation and monetization options. At a primary level, this entails analyzing the feasibility of targeting gas into local markets, and/or its commercialization via international markets. In assessing prospects for local consumption, we will typically investigate energy demand trends, including the historical role played by gas in each end-consuming sector, e.g. for use in the residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, transformation (such as fertilizer production) and power generation sectors. We then examine the potential future penetration of gas in each end-market sector, by analyzing expected growth in energy demand and competing fuel supply/economics. Naturally, prospects for gas prices are also considered, to establish whether targeting gas sales into each end-sector will be attractive.

In a similar vein, GCA’s gas market specialists will consider the feasibility and economic attractiveness of commercializing gas via export markets. This may be through the transportation of gas in compressed or liquefied forms to overseas consumers, or as transformed, gas-based products, such as methanol, ammonia/urea or transportation fuels/lubricants/waxes derived from GTL facilities. For all cases, GCA will again assess the supply/demand/pricing dynamics for each end market, in order to determine whether the scale of gas resources and expected production can be targeted successfully, taking market price and supply competition into consideration.

Ultimately, GCA’s goal is to identify the best option for taking gas production to market, be it via a local distribution network for burning as fuel by residential consumers, through to its conversion to high quality transportation fuels via a GTL project, or for sale into the national and/or international transportation fuels markets.